Last year was one of the busiest ever for the aviation industry. 2025 is forecast to be an even more robust year, with airline travel expected to set a record-high number of passengers. The International Air Transport Association(IATA) predictsthat 5.2 billion people will fly this year, a 6.7 percent increase from 2024. If that prediction becomes a reality, it will mark the first time in history that it will exceed the 5 billion milestone.
The commercial aviation industry is also set tosurpass $1 trillion in revenuefor the first time, marking a 4.4 percent increase from 2024 and highlighting a strong recovery in air travel demand post-pandemic.
In business aviation, corporate travel willcontinue to growas more businesses opt for private aviation as a solution for their travel needs.Since 2019 levels, business or private travelhas increased 24 percent,including a 3 percent rise in 2024 over 2023.
Yet while consumer costs are up for many travel amenities from hotels to restaurants, air travelticket prices overall were down over 5 percent in 2024compared to both 2023 and pre-pandemic 2019. However, that trend is expected toreversethrough 2025.
In terms of capacity – the number of available airline seats – the industry is seeinga 4.7 percent overall capacity reductionfrom discount airlines – mostly from cuts at Southwest Airlines, Spirit, and JetBlue. However, domestic airline growth overall during 2025 in the US is expected to rise.
With the busy summer travel season rapidly approaching, here are some 2025 aviation trends and changes to anticipate as passengers flock to their local airports.
REAL ID Mandates
Beginning May 7, 2025, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will enforce REAL ID requirements at airport security checkpoints across the US. To board a domestic flight, travelers must present a REAL ID-compliant driver’s license or use an alternative form of acceptable identification, such as a passport or a compliant ID card.
Travelers can check if a driver’s license or ID is REAL ID-compliant by verifying if a star symbol is located in the upper corner of a license or ID card. If not yet compliant, REAL IDs can be applied for at state Department of Motor Vehicles locations. For details on eligibility and application steps, visit the officialDHS websiteor use theirREAL ID compliance tool.
New European Requirements
For 2025 travel plans that include Europe, there is a new system and fee to be aware of: the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS). Initially planned for 2025, ETIAS is now expected to launch in the last quarter of 2026, following the launch of the Entry/Exit System (EES) in October 2025.
Americans flying to countries within the European Union will need to apply for ETIAS approval before boarding a flight. The application has a small fee and can be completed online. Once approved, ETIAS authorization is valid for three years or until passport expiration. The authorization includes multiple trips to participating countries, as long as visits are no longer than 90 days within a 180-day period.
Extended Shoulder Seasons
Vacation travel is expanding from peak seasons into what’s known in the travel industry as shoulder seasons – the weeks between major holiday and summer travel seasons. Shoulder seasons are growing due to a number of factors, such as tourists’ desire to visit busy destinations after crowds thin out. Also, with the rise of remote employment, many travelers work while away from a traditional office.
With 2024 in the record books as thehottest year on record, some travelers prefer to avoid the heat and travel when or where temperatures are cooler. This trend has even led to a newly named vacation category:coolcations. Cooler temperature destinations have resulted in increaseddemand– including locales not typically on summer bucket list travel – such as Iceland, up 62 percent last year, and Finland, up 150 percent compared to 2023 – while popular Greece saw a 17 percent decrease in summer tourists.
Airlines have recognized these phenomena and have increased flights to accommodate shoulder season travelers for numerous popular and off-the-beaten-path destinations.
Department of Transportation (DOT) Refund Rules
Last year, theDepartment of Transportation (DOT) introduced new regulations regarding passenger rightsduring airline flight cancellations and significant schedule change events. Key automatic refund requirements for airlines went into effect on May 16, 2024, when President Biden signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024 into law, and the remaining airline refund protections under DOT’s rule are effective as of October 28, 2024.
The rules require that airlines automatically issue cash refunds for canceled or significantly delayed or altered flights without passengers requesting the refunds, with the goal of making the entire process more hassle-free and transparent. Carriers must refund fees for services such as checked baggage or Wi-Fi if they are not provided.
Additionally, the DOT has set April 25 as the deadline for a new rule concerning travel credits for passengers affected by serious communicable diseases. Under this regulation, airlines must issue transferable travel credits or vouchers valid for at least five years to travelers restricted from flying due to government-imposed restrictions or medical advice.
